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For instance: What are the chances that a randomly pulled card is a face card or a heart? Your gut reaction might be to simply … Read More

The answer hangs on whether or not two thing occur at the same time, as though standing on the edge of a choice. Perhaps a … Read More

Screening tests can cause your heart to skip a beat: you get the results and they are positive! The test say you have the condition, … Read More

Does one event cause another? Or is this a coincidence? For example, suppose it’s raining as you wait for your train. Trains can be late, … Read More

Then there are numbers that don’t add up. The sensor readings drifts over time with increasing heat. These are sales volumes over a year. The … Read More

What’s behind all this? A logistic regression coefficient, while perhaps a confusing numerical value to you… Is fuel for prediction. It’s the unprocessed material that … Read More

On paper multiple regression is pretty cool. In practice, it’s more of a mess. Here you get a bunch of numbers in a table: coefficients, … Read More

You might spend weeks checking your assumptions, fitting your models, and cleaning your data, only to have your actual predictions fall short (even with a … Read More

So now you’ve got one more variable in your model. And the R-squared go up. This looks good. You’re explaining more of the dataset! That’s … Read More