From that perspective, you’ll likely have some familiarity with variance, something you encountered in a stats course as a confusing obstacle to overcome. Sure, the … Read More

What about expected value? That’s where we measure how much headline prize over- or underpays compared with real-world average. Yes, we know that headline number … Read More

There are four kings in a standard deck of cards, so probability of pulling one out is four in fifty-two. There are four queens in … Read More

How likely is it that I’ll land on my target? What about landing on my target multiple times in a row? If events are independent, … Read More

For instance: What are the chances that a randomly pulled card is a face card or a heart? Your gut reaction might be to simply … Read More

The answer hangs on whether or not two thing occur at the same time, as though standing on the edge of a choice. Perhaps a … Read More

Screening tests can cause your heart to skip a beat: you get the results and they are positive! The test say you have the condition, … Read More

Does one event cause another? Or is this a coincidence? For example, suppose it’s raining as you wait for your train. Trains can be late, … Read More

Then there are numbers that don’t add up. The sensor readings drifts over time with increasing heat. These are sales volumes over a year. The … Read More

What’s behind all this? A logistic regression coefficient, while perhaps a confusing numerical value to you… Is fuel for prediction. It’s the unprocessed material that … Read More